The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession

It is generally believed that the recession of 2007-2009 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book. We conclude that both sets of data are similar and that business economists are responsive to information about the economy and adjust their predictions quickly.Business forecasts; Great Recession; Beige Book; Payroll Data

Moving At-Risk Teenagers Out of High-Risk Neighborhoods: Why Girls Fare Better Than Boys

neighborhood effects; social experiment; mixed methods; youth risk behavior

A state-wide initiative to promote genetic testing in an underserved population

Genetic testing for cancer susceptibility has been widely studied and utilized clinically. Access to genetic services in research and practice is largely limited to well-insured, Caucasian individuals. In 2009, the Cancer Resource Foundation (CRF) implemented the Genetic Information for Treatment Surveillance and Support (GIFTSS) program to cover the out-of-pocket expenses associated with cancer genetic testing, targeting high-risk individuals with limited financial means and limited health insurance coverage. Here, we (i) describe the characteristics of participants in the Massachusetts (MA) GIFTSS program and (ii) evaluate mutations found in this diverse sample. A secondary retrospective data analysis was performed using de-identified demographic data obtained from laboratory requisition forms and cancer genetic testing result information from the laboratory source. Eligible participants were those who utilized the MA GIFFTS program from 2009 through December of 2014. Data were summarized using descriptive measures of central tendency. Participants were residents of Massachusetts who had health insurance and had a reported income within 250-400% of the federal poverty level. Genetic testing results were categorized following clinical guidelines. Overall, 123 (13%) of participants tested positive for a mutation in a cancer susceptibility gene. For those with a cancer diagnosis, 65 (12%) were found to have a positive result and 20 (7%) had a variant of uncertain significance (VUS). For those unaffected patients, 58 (15%) had a positive result and 10 (3%) were found to have a VUS. The results from this study are useful in describing genetic testing outcomes in this high-risk underserved community. Repeatedly, the literature reports that individuals from diverse or limited resource settings are less likely to access genetic testing. Continued research efforts should be devoted to promoting the access of genetic testing in the high-risk, underserved community

The origins of unpredictability in life trajectory prediction tasks

Why are life trajectories difficult to predict? We investigated this question through in-depth qualitative interviews with 40 families sampled from a multi-decade longitudinal study. Our sampling and interviewing process were informed by the earlier efforts of hundreds of researchers to predict life outcomes for participants in this study. The qualitative evidence we uncovered in these interviews combined with a well-known mathematical decomposition of prediction error helps us identify some origins of unpredictability and create a new conceptual framework. Our specific evidence and our more general framework suggest that unpredictability should be expected in many life trajectory prediction tasks, even in the presence of complex algorithms and large datasets. Our work also provides a foundation for future empirical and theoretical work on unpredictability in human lives.Comment: 54 pages, 8 figure

Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

1. Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. 2. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). 3. The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales. 4. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision‐making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature. 5. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible

Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

1. Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. 2. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). 3. The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales. 4. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision-making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature. 5. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural per- spectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to de- velop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure